How to calculate your estimated campaign reach

September 15, 2020

When planning a campaign my first step is to set a goal, and design a way to reach my goal. I believe that designing a realistic goal is hard to do without knowing the size of your target audience. And without it impossible to calculate your forecasted results.

This is because without knowing the size of your audience, you will not be able to calculate your forecasted results to compare with your business goals. I always start calculating this by looking at the size of the audience by channel and then add targeting layers on top. Such as tastes and dislikes, geo, demographics etc.

I understand that to get population sizes by demographic for Malta is not easy to get accurate numbers. Similar in other countries too. To give me an idea on population size by channel I use  Napoleoncat, but you need to take this numbers with a pinch of salt.

Why are these stats important and how to use them when planning a campaign?

Lets say you are a marketing manager, and would like to target the age group 18-24 in Malta, with a €100/month budget to spend on Facebook. If your CPM (cost per thousand impressions) is approx €6, that would mean you would get ~16k impressions, with a €100 budget.

According to Napoleancat, there are 402k people on Facebook in Malta, and 57,000 of those are between 18-24. That would mean with this budget, you would be able to serve ~16,000 ads (also known as impressions) to the 57,000 users. This does not mean you would be able to reach 16,000 people, because a user would likely see the ad more than once, so much so a minimum frequency of 2.5 is always expected (16,000 impressions / frequency of 2.5x = 6,400 users).

I am sharing this example because by doing this quick exercise you can understand the impact your budget has against your target audience.  Whether this budget is satisfactory or not, depending on your goals and campaign objectives. This is solely to understand that with €100 budget you are likely to reach around 6,400 people, 11% of your target audience.

Hope this helps to get you thinking about how much budget you need to reach your audience size? Do you do similar calculations before starting to plan a campaign?

Side note: 

During my research, I noticed that 7,000 users between ages 25-34 stopped using facebook last month (Aug 2020) compared to the previous month. Could this be because that age group are going out more (regardless of Covid numbers), compared to last month, and therefore using social media less?

Digital Strategy Consultant | Malta | Digital Marketing Services

How to calculate your estimated campaign reach